Is 2026 a good year to buy? Here’s the truth everyone wants

You want the truth about buying in 2026?

Here it is: 2026 can be a great year to buy… if you stop shopping for a “perfect market” and start shopping for a home that fits your actual life. Because the market does not care that your lease ends, your kid starts school, your divorce is final, your new job begins at JBLM, or your mother-in-law is moving in (my condolences). Life happens whether the Fed cooperates or not.

So let’s do this the grown-up way: clean, hype-free, and specific to Kitsap and Pierce County, with real numbers from NWMLS and other legit sources (no Redfin/Zillow gossip).

The 2026 market in one sentence

More choices than the last couple years, still not “easy mode,” and mortgage rates are likely to be “annoying but workable” rather than “historic unicorn.”

At the end of December 2025, Freddie Mac’s national average 30-year fixed rate sat at 6.15% (down from 6.91% a year earlier). (Freddie Mac) That matters because it tells us two things:

1. Rates can drift down without a miracle.

2. They’re still high enough that payment math is bossing buyers around.

And forecasts? Fannie Mae projected rates ending 2026 around 5.9%. (Fannie Mae) Not a promise, an outlook. But it supports the big theme: we’re not likely heading back to 3%… and waiting for 3% could cost you years.

SEARCH FOR HOMES NOW!

Kitsap + Pierce right now: inventory is up, but it’s not “over-supplied”

Let’s talk inventory and competition using NWMLS December 2025 data, because that’s the most recent full-month snapshot we have as we walk into 2026.

County-level snapshot (NWMLS, December 2025)

Pierce County (residential + condo):

• Active listings: 1,666 (up 23.68% YoY)

• Closed sales: 799 (up 4.04% YoY)

• Median price: $550,000

• Months of inventory: 2.09

Kitsap County (residential + condo):

• Active listings: 476 (up 12.00% YoY)

• Closed sales: 283 (basically flat YoY)

• Median price: $575,000

• Months of inventory: 1.68

Now let’s translate that into human.

What “months of inventory” really means (and why you should care)

NWMLS (and most of the industry) considers 4–6 months a balanced market. (nwmls.com)
So when we’re sitting around 1.68 months (Kitsap) and 2.09 months (Pierce), the market is still tilted toward sellers, even though buyers are finally getting a little breathing room. (nwmls.com)

“Inventory is up” doesn’t mean “buyers run the show”

Across NWMLS’s service area, active listings at the end of December 2025 were up 23% year-over-year (11,718 vs. 9,524). (nwmls.com)
That’s real progress, more options, fewer panic offers, more room to negotiate.

But: more inventory compared to last year is not the same as enough inventory.

In Kitsap especially, supply stays tight. And tight supply means:

• the best homes still move fast,

• sellers still have leverage,

• and “waiting for a crash” is a hobby, not a plan.

Rates: the question everyone asks, and the answer nobody likes

Rates matter, but the payment matters more.

Freddie Mac shows the 30-year fixed ended 2025 at 6.15%. (Freddie Mac)
Fannie Mae’s ESR outlook projected rates ending 2026 around 5.9%. (Fannie Mae)

That’s a meaningful difference, but it’s not life-changing unless:

• you’re buying near your max approval, or

• you’re planning to stay short-term, or

• you’re super payment-sensitive.

The sneaky part:

If rates fall, more buyers jump in, and competition heats back up. Lower rates don’t just “help you.” They help everyone.

So the game isn’t “time the bottom.” The game is:

• buy the right house, at the right price, with the right terms, for your timeline, and

• set yourself up so you’re not hostage to rate movements.

And yes, if rates drop later, refinancing might be an option (not a guarantee, not advice, just math).

Competition: calmer than 2021, but still spicy in the right pockets

NWMLS data shows buyer engagement was fairly steady heading into winter:

• Keybox accesses were up 1.4% YoY (meaning brokers are still out there opening doors). (nwmls.com)

• Showings scheduled were down 2.4% YoY (slightly fewer “let’s go look at 19 houses for sport” tours). (nwmls.com)

Translation: buyers didn’t vanish. They just got pickier. Love that for you.

What that means in Kitsap County

Kitsap is its own little universe because demand is anchored by major employers, especially defense and related industries. Kitsap EDA notes Naval Base Kitsap as Kitsap’s largest employer (and one of the largest in the Puget Sound region), with a very large headcount footprint. (Kitsap Economic Development Alliance)

So even when the broader market slows, Kitsap often stays “tight-ish,” especially for:

• move-in-ready homes,

• well-located properties (commute-friendly),

• and anything that feels like a unicorn (view, updated, priced well).

What that means in Pierce County

Pierce tends to offer:

• more geographic variety, and often

• more new construction opportunities than Kitsap.

That can translate to more choices, and sometimes more negotiating power, especially if a builder has standing inventory and wants it gone.

But Pierce still isn’t a buyer free-for-all. The county-level months of inventory at 2.09 is still a seller-leaning environment.

“Is 2026 a good year to buy?” depends on your timeline (not vibes)

Here’s the blunt truth: the best time to buy is when your timeline and finances say you can hold the property long enough to ride out normal market cycles.

If you’re planning to stay 5+ years

2026 can be a solid buy year because:

• inventory is higher than it was,

• you have more negotiating leverage than peak frenzy years,

• and you can focus on lifestyle and long-term utility, not just “what will this do in 9 months.”

If you’re planning to stay 1–3 years

You need to be more cautious.
Short timelines make you more sensitive to:

• transaction costs,

• market fluctuations,

• and the risk of having to sell when the market is being moody.

That doesn’t mean “don’t buy.” It means:

• buy the right property type,

• in the right location,

• with the right monthly payment cushion,

• and don’t overpay for “cute.”

Timing: should you buy early 2026, or wait for later?

Let’s kill the myth that there’s one correct month to buy.

Buying earlier in 2026 can make sense if:

• you find a home that fits your needs now,

• competition is lighter (winter/early spring can be less crowded),

• you can negotiate on homes that sat through the holidays.

Also: if rates drop later, you may have options. If prices rise later, you don’t.

Waiting later in 2026 can make sense if:

• you need more savings,

• you’re cleaning up credit,

• you want more inventory choices (spring/summer usually bring more listings),

• you’re hoping rates ease (again: not guaranteed).

The real strategy: don’t “wait,” prepare. Get yourself into “ready to pounce” shape so when the right home shows up, you’re not still doing paperwork in the parking lot.

The money talk (without the drama): how buyers win in 2026

1) Win the payment, not just the price

Your monthly payment is a cocktail of:

• rate,

• price,

• down payment,

• taxes,

• insurance,

• and (sometimes) HOA dues.

In Kitsap and Pierce, taxes and insurance can vary more than people expect. If you’re only watching the list price, you’re missing the actual game.

2) Use more inventory to negotiate like an adult

With inventory higher year-over-year, sellers are more likely to negotiate on:

• closing costs,

• repairs,

• rate buy-downs (seller-paid concessions),

• timelines.

And yes, the best homes still get competition. But the “meh” homes? Those are where you get leverage.

3) Get fully dialed in on financing

In a 2-ish month supply market, “pre-approved” doesn’t always impress anybody. The stronger your financing profile, the easier it is to win without doing something ridiculous.

4) Know what’s helping buyers behind the scenes

NWMLS reported that 76.9% of listings qualified for down payment assistance (via its Down Payment Resource integration) in December 2025, with 13,911 eligible listings—up 22.2% from the prior year. (nwmls.com)

And NWMLS also found that in 2024, a large share of homes sold were eligible for down payment help (over 72% of houses sold in its database). (nwmls.com)

Translation: if cash-to-close is your hurdle, there may be more options than you think, especially if you’re working with a lender who actually knows local programs.

Kitsap County buyers: what you need to know in 2026

1) Kitsap is still tight! Especially for “good” homes

Kitsap’s December 2025 months of inventory sat at 1.68.
That’s not “buyer’s market.” That’s “you can negotiate sometimes, but don’t show up disrespectful.”

2) Median price is holding, not collapsing

Kitsap’s median (residential + condo) in December 2025: $575,000, up 6.68% year-over-year.
So no, the market is not “crashing.” It’s normalizing.

3) Your advantage is strategy, not speed

In Kitsap, winning often looks like:

• targeting listings that have been sitting,

• writing clean offers with fewer moving parts,

• negotiating smart concessions instead of swinging wildly on price.

Pierce County buyers: what you need to know in 2026

1) More inventory = more options (but still not “easy”)

Pierce had 1,666 active listings in December 2025 and 2.09 months of inventory.
That’s more breathing room than Kitsap, but still seller-leaning.

2) Median price is steady

Pierce’s median (residential + condo) for December 2025 was $550,000, flat year-over-year.
That can be a sweet spot for buyers: less price acceleration, more negotiating space.

3) New construction can be a cheat code

Builders don’t always want price cuts (they hate those), but they may offer:

• rate buy-downs,

• closing cost credits,

• upgrades,

• flexible timelines.

And those can matter more than you think when rates are hovering in the 6% zone.

The part nobody wants to admit: it’s not always about the money

Sometimes the right move is buying because your life needs stability, not because the market is giving you a gold star.

People buy in “bad markets” and do fine because:

• they needed a different school district,

• they needed space for family,

• they were relocating,

• they were tired of rent increases,

• they wanted control and predictability.

Also, your home is not just a spreadsheet cell.
It’s:

• your nervous system,

• your commute,

• your sleep,

• your relationships,

• your routines.

You can always optimize finances. You can’t optimize away living in the wrong situation for three more years because you were waiting for the perfect rate.

2026 buyer playbook: what to do (and what to stop doing)

Stop doing this:

• Waiting for “the crash” as a primary strategy.

• Touring homes without a financing plan.

• Falling in love with a house you can’t comfortably afford.

• Thinking you’ll “time it perfectly.”

Start doing this:

1. Pick your non-negotiables. (Location, commute, schools, layout, timeline.)

2. Set a payment comfort zone (not a maximum approval).

3. Get lender-ready (documents, underwriting strength, options).

4. Watch inventory and days-on-market in your target neighborhoods.

5. Be decisive on the right home, and ruthless about passing on the wrong one.

So… is 2026 a good year to buy in Kitsap or Pierce County?

If you’re financially prepared, have a solid timeline, and you’re buying for real-life reasons, not fantasy-market reasons yes, 2026 can be a smart year to buy.

You’re walking into a market where:

• inventory is meaningfully higher than last year across NWMLS territory, (nwmls.com)

• months of inventory still favors sellers but gives buyers more room than peak frenzy years (Kitsap 1.68, Pierce 2.09),

• buyer activity is steady, not manic, (nwmls.com)

• and rates are trending more “manageable,” with forecasts suggesting further easing into 2026. (Freddie Mac)

That’s not hype. That’s just… the situation.

If you want, tell me:

• your target county (Kitsap or Pierce),

• price range,

• and whether you’re trying to buy in the next 3 months or the next 12,

…and I’ll map out a no-fluff 2026 buying strategy (timing, negotiation angles, and what to prioritize) tailored to your situation.